Last week’s note (‘The Roaring ‘20s’) I invoked the possibility that maybe in 2021 the world might party with an end to the coronavirus crisis in sight, and that a range of new, positive trends may also take hold. For the time being, partying is off the cards as governments respond to the second wave in COVID with new restrictions. For instance, Ireland is unfortunately now entering a six-week lockdown.
One of the threads to have been made very clear by the crisis is the importance of civic society, competent government and the way in which different political systems have dealt with the crisis in disparate ways. In this light, an excellent piece of research by Cambridge University’s Bennett Institute for the Future of Democracy caught my eye.
Their contribution has been to build a panel of data on citizen views of democracy (which they take to be the functioning of political systems) going back to 1973. To this end they have time series data that allow them to map satisfaction (or not) with democracy across countries.
In the context of a world turned upon its head, it is not a surprise that dissatisfaction with ‘democracy (political systems)’ is at an all time high (58%), with that dissatisfaction prominent in developed countries like the US and UK. The Cambridge figures confirm the view of political scientist Larry Diamond that we are in a global political recession.
Some developed countries – notably small advanced countries like Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands and Switzerland do not suffer from this and have near record levels of satisfaction with political systems (as noted in ‘Micro-powers’, 26 September) – they however are the peak of the democratic pyramid here, accounting for only 2% of the world’s population.
Parts of Eastern Europe and Asia are also ‘happy’ with their political systems. In time it may be that political systems in larger countries need to devolve power – in France to its regions, in the UK through Scottish independence and perhaps even more to its regions as politicians such as Andy Burnham are stressing.
There is a lot to dig into beyond these results – the apparent demise of democracy hand in hand with that of globalization, the growing perception that the Anglo-Saxon countries and their political economic model are failing (i.e. inequality), and the allure of less or un-democratic political systems that marry social control with economic growth, notably in China.
My own ‘Levelling’ view is that the end of globalization, the diminished credibility of some political systems, falling productivity, rising indebtedness and climate damage are closely linked causes and effects (they feed off each other) of the end of an era in world affairs. Righting them will require a hugely ambitious program of investment in human development.
What is more curious is the response to disenchantment with political systems. It is easy to think that populism is the beneficiary of dissatisfaction with political systems, though the coronavirus crisis must now surely have disabused populists of the view that government is easy (dissatisfaction with politics is at an all time high in ‘populist’ countries – US, UK, Mexico and Brazil). What is surprising is that there has not been a counteraction to populism (even in the US with a crucial election in view, turnover will still fall below 60%).
One reason is supply of labour. Participating in political life is physically demanding, vexacious in terms of trial by media and often frustrating in terms of what one can achieve. My sense is that countries that want to attract new blood into politics will require less strident media, better political financing laws and more ‘decorum’ in political debate.
At the present time, this is a tough ask, and for me the key trend to watch is the evolution in the relationship of ‘big tech’ with public life, a titanic struggle that has been expertly laid out in Shoshana Zuboff’s book ‘The Age of Surveillance Capitalism’.
Better policing of social media content, more reliable internet user identity checks and improved filtering of facts should make social media richer, and a better platform for discussion. This is one policy task of a potential Biden administration, where they may well work closely with the European Commission.
Another important job will be to limit the apparent ease with which other states can financially influence political figures, and more so, curb their advance in ‘information wars’. I am not quite sure how this is to be done, and the absence of free and fair elections in countries like Russia and China makes any retaliation harder.
A final point. One development that, in the two Anglo-Saxon countries (US, UK) has surprised me in the light of record levels of dissatisfaction with political systems is the persistent of two party systems, and in particular of their parties (Republicans and Democrats, Tories and Labour). My overly rationale view of politics is that the failure of these parties to address the deep seated issues facing their countries might result in their extinction (like Pasok in Greece, Socialists and Republicans in France). Instead these hoary old vessels remain unbroken. Young aspiring politicians still see them as obvious channels to power.
In that respect, and in the light of my ‘Roaring 20’s’ thesis, the challenge is either for the Millennial generation (and younger) to seize one of these parties as a vehicle that can represent the issues they worry about (high asset prices, inequality, climate change, mental health) or to successfully establish a new party that does this. The Cambridge survey showed that 55% of Millennials (as opposed to 45% of Generation X) are dissatisfied with political systems. Let’s see if Millennials have a revolutionary spirit.
Have a great week ahead,
Mike
The Levelling 