A few years ago I was walking through the Gare de Lyon in Paris when I was brought to a halt by the sight of an elegant woman strolling through the concourse. She was followed by a black Labrador, a porter, and then a smaller gentleman trundling behind. The lady in question was actress Julie Gayet, wife of Francois Hollande, the former President of France (the gentleman). One of Hollande’s most famous acts as President was to sneak out of the Elysee on a scooter for what the British tabloid press might call ‘trysts’ with Julie.

A distinguishing factor of French politics compared to Anglophone countries like the UK, Australia and Ireland (it used also be the case in the US) is that a politician’s private life is private, and not for public consumption. 

In keeping with this spirit, in 1899, President Félix Faure allegedly died in the arms of his mistress. More recently, presidents like Giscard and Jacques Chirac married well, but had plenty of ‘adventures’. Indeed, the film about Bernadette Chirac ‘Bernadette’, starring Catherine Deneuve is quite good in this regard. Speaking of which, another film to recommend is ‘La Conquete’, the story of the disintegration of Nicolas Sarkozy’s first marriage whilst he rose to power. Sarkozy has done more than most to banalise French politics, but his relationship with Carla Bruni has also introduced a popular sense of glamour into public life.  

My reflections on the love lives of French presidents are motivated by two things. Francois Hollande has this week declared himself ‘ready’ to enter the battle for the 2027 presidency. With much attention on the right, there is space on the left of French politics for a serious candidate, and Hollande sees an opportunity, though he may well be beaten to it by Dominique de Villepin (famous foreign minister and then prime minister under Chirac who led France’s policy on the 2003 war – there is a good film on this ‘Quai d’Orsay, starring Julie Gayet).

The other event was the ‘coming out’ of Jordan Bardella and Maria Carolina de Bourbon des Deux-Siciles as a public couple, thanks to Paris-Match. In the likely event that Marine Le Pen cannot contest the 2027 presidency, Bardella will be the Rassemblement’s candidate, and according to polls the frontrunner in the contest.

If elected, he will have little in common with previous presidents, apart from the fact that he is male. He is different in a few respects.

The first is that he is a manufactured candidate, in the sense that from a very early age he has been groomed and cultivated by the Le Pen clan, provided with speaking coaches and marketing strategists. To that end, many suspect that the ParisMatch report is just another marketing stunt to burnish his profile, it appears too sterile and planned, and there is nothing worse than a French politician who is not genuinely passionate.

The second more serious accusation is that Bardella has done little of consequence in his professional life and is effectively untested as a leader and driver of policy. In this regard, he has more in common with other young politicians across Europe, whose only claim to credibility is their addiction to TikTok posts. To date many of his public appearances are carefully choreographed, but in the long run into an electoral campaign, Bardella will have to think and speak on his feet, which may be his key weakness.

A related, and underestimated criticism is that Bardella has not demonstrated his intellect, and has not passed through France’s Grandes Écoles – as have the likes of Hollande, Edouard Philippe, Macron and Chirac, who apparently topped his class. This rite of passage is important in the context of the way the French state operates – it is a pyramidical elite, made up of generally very capable people, who act and think alike. In order to make this system work, the person at the top needs to think like, and have the intellectual respect of those below. 

Under that scenario, a young, inexperienced Bardella, without the crutch of an experienced policy team, would struggle, and it is becoming clear that the French establishment is girding itself for a Bardella presidency by placing centrist type policymakers in key institutional posts.

There is a scenario where, if he was victorious, the establishment might hand him two poisoned chalices, a crisis over immigration and potentially, a financial crisis. France is in my view the most financially vulnerable country in Europe, given the state of its finances and the fact that parliament has done nothing to resolve this. In that regard, a Bardella presidency could trigger financial chaos in France, that might eventually force reform of pensions and social security (Bardella would be a lame duck by then).

Thus, Bardella does not fit the profile of the typical French president, and as the presidential contest gathers steam his limitations may become more obvious. According to polls, the one centrist politician who can come close to beating him is Édouard Philippe, former prime minister and author of the excellent ‘Dans L’Ombre’. If anything he needs to learn from this work of political fiction, and go a little ‘MAGA’. 

Have a great week ahead

Mike